. Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, a Democrat, won a runoff election to defeat Herschel Walker, a Trump-backed Republican and former football star. Louisiana the reason I will not put Louisiana in sure-shot Republican is Louisiana does have a record of voting Democrat in gubernatorial elections. Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. GOP Rep. David Rouzer is coasting to reelection. Redistricting will change everything. final pre-election results projection, click here. The greater success of Democratic candidates in states won by the opposing partys presidential candidate was crucial to their ability to win a slight majority of Senate races during these years. Forecast Model Created & Designed by Logan Phillipsif(typeof ez_ad_units!='undefined'){ez_ad_units.push([[728,90],'racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3','ezslot_3',639,'0','0'])};__ez_fad_position('div-gpt-ad-racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3-0'); Looking for the National Picture for the 2022 Senate Forecast? Heres the state of the closest races: One of the most highly watched and dissected and forecastedbattles during the 2022 midterm elections is the Senate race. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. See our election dashboard and find your and Pa., competitive state races with consequences for abortion remain too close to call. Overall, the candidate of the winning presidential candidate in the state won 156 of 174 Senate contests during these years, a success rate of just under 90%. Races to watch include those in the 17th, 18th, 19th and 22nd Congressional Districts, as well as the contest for governor. Senate Midterm Election Results 2022 | CNN Politics What all of these examples demonstrate, however, is that exceptionally popular or unpopular candidates or unusual circumstances can sometimes produce results in Senate contests that are well out of line with what would be expected based on factors such as presidential partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment. I think its still immature. Nov. 8, 2022, The Timess election forecast is now running. Follow along after polls close. If you would like to change your settings or withdraw consent at any time, the link to do so is in our privacy policy accessible from our home page.. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. Web2022 United States Senate elections 2020 November 8, 2022 December 6 ( Georgia runoff) 2024 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate 51 [a] seats needed for a majority Results of the elections: Democratic gain Democratic hold Republican hold No election Rectangular inset ( Oklahoma ): both seats up for election Speaking of DeSantiss rightward lurch, Bidens reelection video cites GOP book bans and attacks on LGBTQ rights as threats to American freedom and equality. These same counties favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by a margin of 8 percentage points a whopping 19-point swing. The polls are now closed in Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, New York, Wisconsin and several other states. In Indiana, a House race in the 1st district leans Democratic, but, if the seat were to flip, it could be an early sign of a red wave. For the open Senate seat in Ohio, J.D. To read recent stories on the race for the Senate, click here. Jason Kao Arizonas Senate race is a currently tossup, according to our estimates. Our model predicted that the Republican nominee would win the race by about 16 points, but Moore ended up losing to Jones by 1.6 points. Similarly, Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is narrowly ahead of GOP candidate Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, though Bolduc is within striking distance. WebPredictions for Every 2022 Senate Race by one of the Nation's Most Accurate Forecasters in 2020. In the current 50-50 Senate, only 6 members represent states that voted for the opposing partys presidential candidate in 2020 3 Democrats (Ohios Sherrod Brown, West Virginias Joe Manchin, and Montanas Jon Tester) and 3 Republicans (Maines Susan Collins, Wisconsins Ron Johnson, and Pennsylvanias Pat Toomey). For that to be the case, Rosenberg must be right about his core idea: Despite pundits tendency to overestimate MAGA, its rise has given Democrats a major opening to expand their coalition. The Times estimates the share of votes reported and the number of remaining votes, based on historic turnout data and reporting from results providers. 0 seconds of 4 minutes, 49 seconds Volume 90%. We got to 57 percent in Pennsylvania. While the three majority-Hispanic counties Hendry, Miami-Dade and Osceola shifted the most, Latino turnout tends to drop more in the midterms compared with other groups. . Senate Seats By GOP Rep. Don Bacons race is one to watch. Forecast Model Created & Designed by Logan Phillips. Republican Mehmet Oz is seeking to close a deficit with Democrat John Fetterman in the open-seat race. Lazaro Gamio Among them: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Texas. While it is not enough to prevent filibustering, the 4 rational Republicans (Collins, Murkowski, Romney and Sasse) shall helped by preventing unwanted filibuster abuse. Ron DeSantis could seek to use a decisive 2022 victory into a springboard for a national campaign in 2024. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. Now, with President Biden announcing his reelection bid, Rosenberg is similarly arguing that despite Bidens age and anemic approval ratings, he is in a strong position to win in 2024 and possibly win big. If the two parties split those six seats evenly, Republicans will win a 51-49 majority. Nov. 8, 2022, The shift to the right has been dramatic among counties in Florida reporting nearly all their votes. Florida: Likely to Lean Republican. If Republicans win all of the races where they are currently leading by two points or more, theyll take control of the House. Kathy Hochul claimed victory late Tuesday against Representative Lee Zeldin, a conservative Republican. Weve seen the lowest peacetime unemployment rate since World War II, the lowest poverty and uninsured rates in American history. The results are displayed in Table 5. Get live estimates for Senate and House control with our real-time election forecast, which analyzes the results so far to show who is on track to win. One big obstacle to that coalition growth project is that Florida Gov. Lauren Boebert, incumbent in Colorados 3rd district, is in an unexpectedly close race in what was considered a safe Republican district. The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by Its important that our goal is not just to win the election but to have it feel like a profound repudiation of MAGA. Maggie Astor According to the results displayed in Table 5, only a small minority of Senate contests in 2022 are likely to be highly competitive. The Democrats should not focus much attention on these states and instead focus on the other states assuming they are on a mission to secure 60 seats, to prevent filibustering of bills. Gingrich 2022 Prediction: Senate Will Go +3 to +5 With GOP Pickups in NH, NV, AZ & GA Without Runoff, +44 Seats In House. 465 Crestwood DriveP.O. 2 References. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment. WebBattle for the Senate 2022. Republicans' late primary complicates their quest to oust Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in the nation's smallest swing state. , Kathy Hochul, New Yorks first female governor, beat Rep. Lee Zeldin in the states closest race in decades. Democrats launched a late ad campaign hitting Republican Eric Aadland, who is seeking to become first alphabetically in congressional history by last name. Theres an enormous amount to work with here. Explore the full list of features on our site map. Most of the vote reporting so far is early, and Democrats are expected to win those votes by a large margin. I cant tell you how fired up the Democratic grass roots is right now. Current Senate To retain control of the House, Democrats must win 46 of these seats (after accounting for the races the parties are expected to win most easily). These are our estimates for which party will win control of the Senate, and the estimated number of seats won by each party. that guide every prediction he makes. From this video, its very clear that Joe Biden is going to go there. Our House forecast is based on past results, polling data and the current vote count. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. There is also an unexpectedly competitive Senate race in Utah between Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, and Evan McMullin, an independent. The Republican nominee, Richard Mourdock, a staunch conservative, defeated the more moderate incumbent, Richard Lugar, in the GOP primary. Tonight: follow live results and our forecast from Georgia as the final Senate seat in the 2022 midterm elections is decided. The outcomes of the races in these three states will decide the balance of power in the Senate. Nov. 8, 2022, Nevada is the last big swing state of the day, and virtually everything is up for grabs: The races for Senate, three House seats, governor and secretary of state. Senate Polls Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, a Democrat, won a tough re-election race against her Republican rival, Tudor Dixon. , Angie Craig, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Minnesotas Second Congressional District. Nov. 8, 2022, If Democrats hold onto two seats leaning their way, they will need to win three additional tossup seats to maintain control of the Senate. Toggle Predictions subsection 1.1 Statewide. Nov. 8, 2022, Its still early, but Fetterman is running ahead of Biden in five Pennsylvania counties that have reported nearly all of their votes. Taking control of the governorship and both legislative chambers in these states could ease Democrats ability to pass legislation on an array of issues. Aside from that, the main action at this hour will be in the House, with a close race in Washingtons 8th District and at least half a dozen in California. Our Senate forecast is based on past results, polling data and the current vote count. See the Senate forecast * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb. The Associated Press has not yet called the race. When POLITICOs Election Forecast launched earlier this year, the Senate was rated Lean Republican. After Democrats summer comeback, that rating moved to Toss Up, which is where it ends but with a bullet. Senate Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans must win just 19 competitive seats to retake majority control from the Democrats. Democratic incumbents (87%) and Republican incumbents (88%) were equally successful. Looking for Bidens Approval Rating Map? Senate Election Forecast 2022: Can Democrats Keep Control in Midterms? Gov. This is not a time to be defensive. Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. 3 See also. John Fetterman defeated the celebrity TV host Dr. Mehmet Oz, flipping Pennsylvanias Senate seat to the Democrats. Lazaro Gamio Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. Nov. 9, 2022, Democrats and Republicans each need to win three more competitive Senate seats to win control of the chamber (in addition to the races they are expected to win most easily). , Emilia Sykes, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Ohios 13th Congressional District. I then applied the findings from these earlier elections to the 35 contests taking place this year in order to predict their outcomes. November 8 The estimates for each race are based on the votes reported so far, how those places have voted in previous elections and the results of demographically similar places where votes have been counted. Maggie Astor Nov. 8, 2022, Pennsylvania is home to a close Senate race between Lt. Gov. Every day, it simulates the election 50,000 times. Ignoring the jokes of Trumps August reinstatement, both Democrats and Republicans have started their ground work. State officials say that counting all of the votes may take several days. GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for a third term making him the only Republican seeking reelection in a state President Biden won in 2020. Nov. 9, 2022, Voters in three states enshrined lasting protections for abortion rights in their state Constitutions. . WebDemocrats will hold 51 seats in the Senate, providing the party with a majority that likely wont have to rely as heavily on Vice President Kamala Harris tie-breaking vote. Alicia Parlapiano 2022 NV ) Create Your Own Map. If DeSantis can energize the MAGA base while partially reversing the educational realignment that Trump ushered in, thats a major problem, no? Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket makes the math slightly easier for a Republican upset. Eight of those counties that voted for Biden in 2020 shifted 16 points to the right in the race for governor, and 12 points in the Senate race. Were tracking the remaining uncalled House races, and the most recently called races, as states continue to count the remaining votes. Based on current events and the understanding that senators are elected by the states popular vote rather electoral districts, I will make my predictions. Tonight: follow live results and our forecast from Georgia as the final Senate seat in the 2022 midterm elections is decided. Were forecasting the race to control the Senate and House, as well as each partys chance of winning the 36 governors seats up for election. This finding indicates that Republican candidates have underperformed in Senate elections relative to what we would have expected based on state presidential partisanship, incumbency, and election type. Were tracking the latest polling for the 2024 Primary - both if Joe Biden decides to run for a second term, and if he opts out. In these elections, it was not the unpopularity of the GOP challengers that explained the discrepancies, but Manchins extraordinary popularity as a former governor and relatively conservative Democrat. Do you think that some of these big climate and infrastructure investments which are going to spur green manufacturing jobs in some very red places can shift the paradigm on how working-class White people view climate change and government spending? In both 2012 and 2018, Manchin far outperformed the expected vote for a Democratic candidate in a state that Donald Trump carried twice by enormous margins. Polls Underestimated. Nov. 9, 2022, The feared Democratic collapse along the Rio Grande didnt materialize. The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took place on November 8, 2022, as part of the biennial 2022 United States elections. , Greg Landsman, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Ohios First Congressional District. It's one thing to tell you who's likely to win POLITICO's Election Forecast also tells you why. Read more This discrepancy reflects the small state bias of the Senate, which results in an overrepresentation of Republican-leaning states. The results of this seat-by-seat analysis were consistent with the national forecast from the generic ballot model. Michiganders are voting on abortion rights. Here are my predictions how the races will pan out and some points of caution Democrats should note to secure the Senate in 2022. But poor candidates could hurt their chances, as they have in some other recent Senate races. Republicans have flipped four House seats in New York, two districts on Long Island and two in the Hudson Valley. Republicans and MAGA have left a lot of political real estate for us to go claim if we are aggressive about it. Nate Cohn Box 400806 Charlottesville, VA 22904. These mirages show that vote margins early in the night can change significantly. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. 2022 Senate Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight Republicans successfully defended 12 of their 16 open seats for a success rate of 75% while Democrats successfully defended 12 of their 17 open seats for a success rate of 71%. Table 1 summarizes the results of the 174 U.S. Senate elections held between 2012 and 2020, including special elections. Ron DeSantis, a hard-right conservative, is facing Representative Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor who switched parties. , Gov. Though Republicans have put forward weak candidates in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, the wind is behind their backs heading into November 8. Lazaro Gamio Jen Kiggans, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent Virginias Second Congressional District. Maggie Astor These are our estimates for which party will win control of the House, and the estimated number of seats won by each party. U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania, 2024 March 8, 2023 U.S. Senate, Washington, 2024 Feb. 21, 2023 U.S. Senate, Montana, 2024 Feb. 9, 2023 U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2024 avg. The GOP is still favored to hold open seats in North Carolina and Ohio, rated Lean Republican.. , Gov. We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. Tony Evers is seeking a second term in one of the country's most-closely divided states. Visit. Click here. Nov. 9, 2022, The Senate races in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona are very tight, and vote counting is expected to drag into the week. Here is a map of the states where one of its seats is due for election. Maggie Astor Prediction: Fetterman wins by 1-2%, 50-49 Democrats WISCONSIN: Mandela Barnes vs. Ron Johnson For several years, Johnson indicated he would not seek re-election in 2022, but here I am writing about him. The 2022 Senate Forecast uses a sophisticated model that includes polling, historic trends, and fundraising to create its projections. Overall, incumbents won 87% of their races. Lt. Gov. In Arizona, 604 likely voters were surveyed from Oct. 24 to Oct. 26. Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring) Trumps strength in Ohio That was mainly because Republicans currently hold 21 of the 35 seats that are up for election in 2022. Given the narrow size of recent Senate majorities, that underperformance is quite significant. The polls are now closed in Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont, and in parts of Florida and New Hampshire. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. 2020 comparison maps exclude places where third-party candidates won more than 5 percent of the vote. NYT Graphics Maggie Astor Maura Healey, the newly elected Democratic governor of Massachusetts is the first openly lesbian woman to be elected governor in the United States. Depending on how many people vote Democrat in New Orleans, there is an outside chance for this seat to flip to the Democrats. Maggie Astor Vance, a Republican and the Hillbilly Elegy author, is very likely to win Ohios Senate race, according to our estimates. Does the Democratic Party have a liberal cultural answer to DeSantis? Web2022 United States Senate elections 2020 November 8, 2022 December 6 ( Georgia runoff) 2024 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate 51 [a] seats needed for a The Needle: Senate and House Forecast - New York Times For example, in the 2012 Indiana Senate election, the Republican candidate was favored by just over 7 points but the Democratic candidate won by almost 6 points. The facts are that the country is better off. *. Latest predictions for the House 2022 Elections, updated daily. Here are the states the Republicans will more than likely retain in 2022. It could be awhile before all votes are counted. Greg Abbott brushed off a well-funded challenge from Beto ORourke, winning a third term as Texas governor. 1.2 Close races. Click here! Lazaro Gamio Republicans would need just two tossup seats beyond what they are favored to win. In Floridas closely watched governors race, Gov. Nov. 8, 2022, Senator Raphael Warnock is out with an early lead in Georgia, but it could all be just a mirage. The Associated Press has not called New Yorks race for governor but Gov. Democrat Katie Hobbs vs. Republican Kari Lake is one of the marquee races of the 2022 midterms.
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